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Surveying the range of analyst’s forecasts for the stock market in 2025, there are two camps: those who see a market bubble and expect the market to fall 70% and those who see Artificial Intelligence fomenting a new industrial revolution forecasting higher S&P500 returns. Both forecasts are anchored on convincing arguments. The World Economy. Most … Read more

The world is cutting interest rates to stimulate their economies and thwart a recession. This reversal from high interest rates is good for stocks but because they are at all-time highs exceeding P/E levels of 2000 and 2008, vigilance and caution is prudent and necessary despite prices likely to go higher. There are two wars … Read more

The financial Markets are reacting to geopolitical events not to an impending hard landing for the US economy. The events distressing the markets are Japan’s recent interest rate hike, a 35-year reversal of their monetary policy to keep interest near zero. Higher Japanese interest rates increase the value of Yen and cause the unwinding of … Read more

US economic news has been impressive, causing the stock market to make historical, new highs led by the Towering 10—Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Novo-Nordisk, Nvidia, and Tesla. Price Earnings (P/Es) ratios are generally supported by 2024 earnings expectations and AI is expected to bring a tidal wave of productivity improvements. All … Read more

Since the Fed’s announcement last week to pause interest rate hikes for a third time, the stock and bond markets have started a broad rally. This is a welcome sign because for most of this year, the breadth of the market has been extremely narrow and the Treasury Yield Curve has been inverted indicating potential … Read more

The financial markets are rebounding from the 2022 market correction, but this year’s rally has been about a handful of MegaTechs driving market indices to double-digit returns. The advent of a new “Artificial Intelligence Era” explains the move with six companies accounting for almost 70% of the Nasdaq 100’s rally (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google … Read more

Economic data is cloudy as to the health of the economy and though 99% of CEOs expect an economic downturn, half think it will be mild in the US according to Ernst Young ’23 survey. This outlook is shared by most public company CFOs as they expect only a mild recession in 2023, according to … Read more

Year-to-Date economic data is mixed and centered on the health of the economy. 99% of CEOs now expect an economic downturn though half think it will be mild in the US according to Ernst Young ’23 survey. This outlook is shared by most CFOs at public companies as they expect only a mild recession in … Read more

The failures of Silicon Valley, Silvergate, and Signature Banks were due to multiple factors but chief among them was the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes. Debt securities lose value when interest rise—if a bank bought a 2.0%, 10-year bond last year but could now get a 4.0% yield if they purchased the same bond, their … Read more

2022 was a correction year in the markets. The cause of the correction was Inflation and the Fed aggressively raising interest rates having thought inflation would pass after supply chain disruptions passed following the Covid-19 pandemic. Looking forward into 2023 the consensus of economists forecast is for a Recession. We have already had 2 back-to-back … Read more