The spectrum of economic forecasts for the economy and financial markets ranges from robust to bust. Most of the differences of agreement pivot on whether Trump’s polices will bring growth or put us into recession. The facts, so far, appear to be that the economy continues to look resilient with inflation falling, unemployment holding steady, … Read more
We are in a Market Correction triggered by Tariffs on countries having export trade surpluses with the US. The formula used by the Trump administration was a surprise because it targets every country looking at their ratio of Imports to Exports. China was hit with an additional 34% tariff and immediately retaliated imposing reciprocal 34% … Read more
Surveying the range of analyst’s forecasts for the stock market in 2025, there are two camps: those who see a market bubble and expect the market to fall 70% and those who see Artificial Intelligence fomenting a new industrial revolution forecasting higher S&P500 returns. Both forecasts are anchored on convincing arguments. The World Economy. Most … Read more
The world is cutting interest rates to stimulate their economies and thwart a recession. This reversal from high interest rates is good for stocks but because they are at all-time highs exceeding P/E levels of 2000 and 2008, vigilance and caution is prudent and necessary despite prices likely to go higher. There are two wars … Read more
The financial Markets are reacting to geopolitical events not to an impending hard landing for the US economy. The events distressing the markets are Japan’s recent interest rate hike, a 35-year reversal of their monetary policy to keep interest near zero. Higher Japanese interest rates increase the value of Yen and cause the unwinding of … Read more
US economic news has been impressive, causing the stock market to make historical, new highs led by the Towering 10—Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Novo-Nordisk, Nvidia, and Tesla. Price Earnings (P/Es) ratios are generally supported by 2024 earnings expectations and AI is expected to bring a tidal wave of productivity improvements. All … Read more
Since the Fed’s announcement last week to pause interest rate hikes for a third time, the stock and bond markets have started a broad rally. This is a welcome sign because for most of this year, the breadth of the market has been extremely narrow and the Treasury Yield Curve has been inverted indicating potential … Read more
The financial markets are rebounding from the 2022 market correction, but this year’s rally has been about a handful of MegaTechs driving market indices to double-digit returns. The advent of a new “Artificial Intelligence Era” explains the move with six companies accounting for almost 70% of the Nasdaq 100’s rally (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google … Read more
Economic data is cloudy as to the health of the economy and though 99% of CEOs expect an economic downturn, half think it will be mild in the US according to Ernst Young ’23 survey. This outlook is shared by most public company CFOs as they expect only a mild recession in 2023, according to … Read more
Year-to-Date economic data is mixed and centered on the health of the economy. 99% of CEOs now expect an economic downturn though half think it will be mild in the US according to Ernst Young ’23 survey. This outlook is shared by most CFOs at public companies as they expect only a mild recession in … Read more